 06.02.08 11:45 | ||
UK, London, 5 February / corr Trend G.Ahmadova / Though the international community does not accept Kosovo's independence to be a precedent for other conflicts in the region based on ethnic separatism, Anatol Lieven, a prominent British analyst, disagrees with such statements.
"Kosovo and Nagorno-Karabakh are different conflicts, but at the same time they are both separatist conflicts in autonomous areas in other states, inevitably, what happens in one will have a certain effect on what happens in the other", Anatol Lieven, British policy analyst and chairman of International Relations and Terrorism Studies at King's College London, told Trend's correspondent in London.
Lieven believes that the Kosovo example can be applied to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. "Why not? It is easy to say that things are specific, but it depends who is doing the talking. Everybody tries to make up different rules, different cases. But in fact, of course, it does set a precedent", said the British analyst.
Kosovo's independence will have repercussions for the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, he says.
Serbia lost formal control over Kosovo in 1999, when NATO attacked to drive out Serb forces and halt the killing and ethnic cleansing of Albanian civilians during a two-year counter-insurgency war. The Kosovo Albanians insists on the declaration of independence of this region. The West stated that it can recognize the independence of this region, whereas Belgrade intends to grant this region only autonomy. Backed by Russia, Serbia rejects independence for Kosovo. Moscow has blocked the adoption of an independence plan at the U.N. Security Council.
Russia backed Belgrade's position, which excluded any changes to the border violating the UN border, which was accepted as 'deadlock in negotiations' in the format of UN Security where Russia holds a right of veto. "I don't believe that the Russians will back the Armenians particularly, that will not be a direct effect of Kosovo's independence. But undoubtedly the Armenians will be encouraged by that", said Mr Lieven.
The conflict between the two countries of the South Caucasus began in 1988 due to Armenian territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Since 1992, Armenian Armed Forces have occupied 20% of Azerbaijan including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and its seven surrounding districts. In 1994, Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement at which time the active hostilities ended. The Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group ( Russia, France, and the US) are currently holding peaceful negotiations.
After the collapse of USSR, along with the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict three more lingering conflicts exist in the territory of CIS. They are the Trans-Dniester, Georgian-Abkhaz and Georgian-Ossetian conflicts.
Commenting on Russia's hindering of the determination of the status of Kosovo and supporting for such separatist regimes as South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Mr Lieven said there were two main reasons. "Firstly, the Abkhaz and Ossetian are Northern Caucasian people to whom the Russians are tied very closely. And certainly they do not want any more trouble in the North Caucasus. And secondly, the Russians have come to absolutely detest the Georgians and are not going to do anything for them, whereas Russia, of course, has been trying to build good relations with Azerbaijan. That is the explanation", he said.
Analysing the difficulty western powers face in balancing people's call for autonomy with a desire to maintain the territorial integrity of existing states and preserve regional stability, Mr Lieven said it would partly depend on what happens next.
"If Kosovo does break away successfully and more or less peacefully, possibly involving limited partition literally, but without any other repercussions, then no doubt the US will be seen to have succeeded more or less".
"If the independence of Kosovo leads to more serious fighting with Serbia and a possible overspill of Albanian separatism into Serbia itself and then towards Macedonia, then of course, the entire US policy towards the region, and ever since 1999 and the Kosovo war, will be seen to have been a disaster. But we do not yet know what will happen", said analyst.
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